Bengaluru, 7 March

Karnataka is likely to witness above-normal temperature this summer -- March to May, according to the Meteorological Department, which has forecast heatwave conditions in north interior parts of the State. Officials, however, said the maximum temperature may not cross 35 degrees Celsius in March and there is a probability of normal rainfall as well this month bringing some respite to people from scorching heat in parts of the State.

But they said the north interior regions are likely to witness heatwave conditions. As per records, Bengaluru recorded the highest temperature in February in 2005 -- 35.9 degrees Celsius. In 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, the highest temperature recorded in February was 35.5 degrees Celsius. But this year, in February, it was 34.5 degrees Celsius.

El Nino Effect

In March, on Tuesday, Bengaluru recorded 36 degrees Celsius, which was the hottest day so far this year. In March 2017, the highest temperature of 37.2 degrees Celsius was recorded in the fourth week of that month. In 2019, the highest temperature of 37.0 degrees Celsius was recorded on March eight. "As far as our forecast is concerned, there are many reasons for this (high temperature). It is also about El Nino, which is a global parameter.

El Nino is likely to become weak in the coming months. In the beginning of probably the monsoon season, we are expecting it to become neutral... that means the El Nino will be between 0 and 0.5 degrees Celsius but now it is 1.5 degrees Celsius and because of this, we are having very clear skies," A Prasad, Scientist, India Meteorological Department (IMD), told PTI.

"We are not having any cloudy weather and therefore, the temperature is rising but there is probability of normal rainfall as well," he said. "No rainfall happened in February. And it is mainly because of this El Nino condition that this time we had an early summer-like situation. Though the summer begins in March, its effect is being felt from February itself since the last few years. It's also because of global warming," he said.

According to the forecast for March, some parts of south interior Karnataka including Bengaluru are likely to see above normal temperatures. "There is a probability that Karnataka would witness above normal temperatures for a few days in the months of March, April and May....It would not be the case for all the 31 days but only a few days for these three months," Prasad said.

"The maximum temperature would touch 35 degrees but it may not cross beyond that this month (summer). As per forecast, the average temperature for March is likely to be 34.1 degrees Celsius, for April it is 33.4 degrees Celsius and for May, it is 33.1 degrees Celsius...From May onwards, the average temperature would come down," he said.

Rainfall likely

"It won't be a dry season...there will be rainfall also...we will be getting rains. We are expecting normal rainfall during these three months. Even in March, there is a possibility of rainfall in Bengaluru. We need 14.7 mm rainfall in March for Bengaluru. Last year, we had nine mm rainfall in March in Bengaluru. Karnataka as a state has to get 10.5 mm rainfall in March this year," Prasad said.

Last year, the State had a 19 per cent rainfall deficit in March. Last year even Bengaluru ended up with more than 20 per cent rain deficit. "Once El Nino becomes weak, immediately the monsoon will not revive but there would be normal monsoon conditions....these rainfalls would be accompanied with thunderstorms as well," he added.

According to him, last year, Karnataka witnessed heatwave conditions early in the first week of March itself in coastal districts of the state. This year also, there is a high probability that the heatwave condition will be prevailing slightly more than the normal days in the north interior Karnataka regions which include Raichur, Belagavi, Bagalkote and Gadag. According to the forecast, temperatures would be touching 38 to 39 degrees Celsius in north interior Karnataka this summer.