Bangkok, 26 Jan 

Simmering tensions in the South China Sea between China and several Southeast Asian nations now regularly spark direct confrontation. Fighting in Myanmar against the military government that seized power three years ago has grown to the point that most say the country is now in a civil war.

Hopes were high that Indonesia might be able to make significant inroads on both issues during its 2023 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, using its clout as the bloc's largest country, but little progress was made. Now Laos, the bloc's poorest and one of its smallest countries, has taken over the rotating chair.

 As foreign ministers gather in Luang Prabang for this year's first top-level meetings over the weekend, many are pessimistic that ASEAN can keep its biggest challenges from festering and growing.

After the military seized control of Myanmar in February 2021 from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, ASEAN — comprised of Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — came up with a “Five-Point Consensus” plan for peace.

The military leadership in Myanmar has so far ignored the plan. At the same time, a humanitarian crisis is growing, with more than 2.6 million people forced from their homes due to escalating violence, according to the United Nations.

Indonesia, despite touting more than 180 “engagements” with stakeholders in Myanmar, was unable to achieve a breakthrough.

ASEAN's plan calls for the immediate cessation of violence, a dialogue among all concerned parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy, provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels, and a visit to Myanmar by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties.

Still, it's likely Laos will approach the situation in Myanmar from its own perspective as the first ASEAN nation since the military takeover to share a border with the country, Faizal said.

At the moment, the Myanmar military is losing ground to a concerted offensive launched in October by three powerful militias that have since been joined by several others around the country.

China is seen to be at least tacitly supporting the initial group, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, stemming partially from Beijing's growing irritation at the flourishing drug trade and other criminality across its border with Myanmar. It also has strong influence with the country's military rulers.

Communist Laos is one of the ASEAN countries with the closest ties to Beijing, so it will be interesting to see whether it tries to enlist Chinese support in resolving the Myanmar conflict, Faizal said.

Beijing maintains it will not interfere in the internal affairs of other states, so it's unclear whether it would want to take on a greater role in trying to end the conflict in Myanmar, even if it were acceptable to other ASEAN members.

Many are locked in maritime disputes with China over its claims of sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea, one of the world's most crucial waterways for shipping.