Washington, 2 July

Republican leaders in the House are sprinting toward a Wednesday vote on President Donald Trump's tax and spending cuts package, determined to seize momentum from a hard-fought vote in the Senate while essentially daring members to defy their party's leader and vote against it.

“The American people gave us a clear mandate, and after four years of Democrat failure, we intend to deliver without delay,” the top four House GOP leaders said Tuesday after the bill passed the Senate 51-50, thanks to Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaking vote.

It's a risky gambit, one designed to meet Trump's demand for a 4 July finish — and there's a steep climb ahead. Since launching early this year, Republicans have struggled mightily with the bill nearly every step of the way, often succeeding by only a single vote. Their House majority stands at only 220-212, leaving little room for defections.

Some Republicans are likely to balk at being asked to rubber stamp the Senate bill less than 24 hours after passage, having had little time to read or absorb the changes that were made, many at the last minute to win the vote of Alaska Sen Lisa Murkowski.

House Republicans from competitive districts have bristled at the Senate bill's cuts to Medicaid, while conservatives have lambasted the legislation as straying from their fiscal goals.

It falls to Speaker Mike Johnson and his team to convince them that the time for negotiations is over.

Trump pushes Republicans to do the right thing

The bill would extend and make permanent various individual and business tax breaks that Republicans passed in Trump's first term, plus temporarily add new ones that Trump promised during the campaign, including allowing workers to deduct tips and overtime pay, and provide a new $6,000 deduction for most older adults. In all, the legislation contains about $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years.

The bill also provides some $350 billion for defense and Trump's immigration crackdown. Republicans partially pay for it all through less spending on Medicaid and food assistance. The Congressional Budget Office projects that it will add about $3.3 trillion in federal deficits over the coming decade.

The House passed its version of the bill back in May, despite worries about spending cuts and the overall price tag. Now, they are being asked to give final passage to a version that, in many respects, exacerbates those concerns. The Senate bill's projected impact on federal deficits, for example, is significantly higher.

Trump praised the bill profusely in a social media post, saying “We can have all of this right now, but only if the House GOP UNITES, ignores its occasional GRANDSTANDERS' (You know who you are!), and does the right thing, which is sending this Bill to my desk.”

The high price of opposing Trump's bill

Speaker Johnson, R-La., is intent on meeting the president's 4 July timeline. He's also betting that hesitant Republicans won't cross Trump because of the heavy political price they would have to pay.

They need only look to Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who announced his intention to vote against the legislation over the weekend. Soon, the president was calling for a primary challenger to the senator and personally attacking him on social media. Tillis quickly announced he would not seek a third term.

Others could face a similar fate. One House Republican who has staked out opposition to the bill, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, is already being targeted by Trump's well-funded political operation.

Democrats warn health care, food aid are being ripped away

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries described the bill in dire terms, saying that cuts in Medicaid spending would result in “Americans losing their lives because of their inability to access health care coverage.” He said Republicans are “literally ripping the food out of the mouths of children, veterans and seniors.”